随着机器学习和深度学习模型在多种领域变得非常普遍，因此采用决策过程的主要保留是它们的黑盒本质。可解释的人工智能（XAI）范式由于其能够降低模型不透明度的能力而获得了很多动力。 XAI方法不仅增加了利益相关者对决策过程的信任，而且还帮助开发商确保了其公平性。最近的努力用于创建透明的模型和事后解释。但是，对于时间序列数据，开发了更少的方法，而在多元数据集方面甚至更少。在这项工作中，我们利用塑形组的固有解释性来开发模型不可知的多元时间序列（MTS）反事实解释算法。反事实可能会通过指示在输入上必须执行哪些更改以改变最终决定，从而对制作黑框模型产生巨大影响。我们在现实生活中的太阳耀斑预测数据集上测试了我们的方法，并证明我们的方法会产生高质量的反事实。此外，与唯一的MTS反事实生成算法的比较表明，除了视觉上可以解释外，我们的解释在接近性，稀疏性和合理性方面也很出色。

语言模型既展示了定量的改进，又展示了新的定性功能，随着规模的增加。尽管它们具有潜在的变革性影响，但这些新能力的特征却很差。为了为未来的研究提供信息，为破坏性的新模型能力做准备，并改善社会有害的效果，至关重要的是，我们必须了解目前和近乎未来的能力和语言模型的局限性。为了应对这一挑战，我们介绍了超越模仿游戏基准（Big Bench）。 Big Bench目前由204个任务组成，由132家机构的442位作者贡献。任务主题是多样的，从语言学，儿童发展，数学，常识性推理，生物学，物理学，社会偏见，软件开发等等。 Big-Bench专注于被认为超出当前语言模型的功能的任务。我们评估了OpenAI的GPT型号，Google内部密集变压器体系结构和大型基础上的开关稀疏变压器的行为，跨越了数百万到数十亿个参数。此外，一个人类专家评估者团队执行了所有任务，以提供强大的基准。研究结果包括：模型性能和校准都随规模改善，但绝对的术语（以及与评估者的性能相比）；在模型类中的性能非常相似，尽管带有稀疏性。逐渐和预测的任务通常涉及大量知识或记忆成分，而在临界规模上表现出“突破性”行为的任务通常涉及多个步骤或组成部分或脆性指标；社交偏见通常会随着含糊不清的环境而随着规模而增加，但这可以通过提示来改善。

Retrieval-augmented in-context learning has emerged as a powerful approach for addressing knowledge-intensive tasks using frozen language models (LM) and retrieval models (RM). Existing work has combined these in simple "retrieve-then-read" pipelines in which the RM retrieves passages that are inserted into the LM prompt. To begin to fully realize the potential of frozen LMs and RMs, we propose Demonstrate-Search-Predict (DSP), a framework that relies on passing natural language texts in sophisticated pipelines between an LM and an RM. DSP can express high-level programs that bootstrap pipeline-aware demonstrations, search for relevant passages, and generate grounded predictions, systematically breaking down problems into small transformations that the LM and RM can handle more reliably. We have written novel DSP programs for answering questions in open-domain, multi-hop, and conversational settings, establishing in early evaluations new state-of-the-art in-context learning results and delivering 37-200%, 8-40%, and 80-290% relative gains against vanilla LMs, a standard retrieve-then-read pipeline, and a contemporaneous self-ask pipeline, respectively.

Over the last decade, an approach that has gained a lot of popularity to tackle non-parametric testing problems on general (i.e., non-Euclidean) domains is based on the notion of reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embedding of probability distributions. The main goal of our work is to understand the optimality of two-sample tests constructed based on this approach. First, we show that the popular MMD (maximum mean discrepancy) two-sample test is not optimal in terms of the separation boundary measured in Hellinger distance. Second, we propose a modification to the MMD test based on spectral regularization by taking into account the covariance information (which is not captured by the MMD test) and prove the proposed test to be minimax optimal with a smaller separation boundary than that achieved by the MMD test. Third, we propose an adaptive version of the above test which involves a data-driven strategy to choose the regularization parameter and show the adaptive test to be almost minimax optimal up to a logarithmic factor. Moreover, our results hold for the permutation variant of the test where the test threshold is chosen elegantly through the permutation of the samples. Through numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world data, we demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed test in comparison to the MMD test.

When annotators label data, a key metric for quality assurance is inter-annotator agreement (IAA): the extent to which annotators agree on their labels. Though many IAA measures exist for simple categorical and ordinal labeling tasks, relatively little work has considered more complex labeling tasks, such as structured, multi-object, and free-text annotations. Krippendorff's alpha, best known for use with simpler labeling tasks, does have a distance-based formulation with broader applicability, but little work has studied its efficacy and consistency across complex annotation tasks. We investigate the design and evaluation of IAA measures for complex annotation tasks, with evaluation spanning seven diverse tasks: image bounding boxes, image keypoints, text sequence tagging, ranked lists, free text translations, numeric vectors, and syntax trees. We identify the difficulty of interpretability and the complexity of choosing a distance function as key obstacles in applying Krippendorff's alpha generally across these tasks. We propose two novel, more interpretable measures, showing they yield more consistent IAA measures across tasks and annotation distance functions.

Generating a chain of thought (CoT) can increase large language model (LLM) performance on a wide range of tasks. Zero-shot CoT evaluations, however, have been conducted primarily on logical tasks (e.g. arithmetic, commonsense QA). In this paper, we perform a controlled evaluation of zero-shot CoT across two sensitive domains: harmful questions and stereotype benchmarks. We find that using zero-shot CoT reasoning in a prompt can significantly increase a model's likelihood to produce undesirable output. Without future advances in alignment or explicit mitigation instructions, zero-shot CoT should be avoided on tasks where models can make inferences about marginalized groups or harmful topics.

Multi-object state estimation is a fundamental problem for robotic applications where a robot must interact with other moving objects. Typically, other objects' relevant state features are not directly observable, and must instead be inferred from observations. Particle filtering can perform such inference given approximate transition and observation models. However, these models are often unknown a priori, yielding a difficult parameter estimation problem since observations jointly carry transition and observation noise. In this work, we consider learning maximum-likelihood parameters using particle methods. Recent methods addressing this problem typically differentiate through time in a particle filter, which requires workarounds to the non-differentiable resampling step, that yield biased or high variance gradient estimates. By contrast, we exploit Fisher's identity to obtain a particle-based approximation of the score function (the gradient of the log likelihood) that yields a low variance estimate while only requiring stepwise differentiation through the transition and observation models. We apply our method to real data collected from autonomous vehicles (AVs) and show that it learns better models than existing techniques and is more stable in training, yielding an effective smoother for tracking the trajectories of vehicles around an AV.

Neural information retrieval (IR) systems have progressed rapidly in recent years, in large part due to the release of publicly available benchmarking tasks. Unfortunately, some dimensions of this progress are illusory: the majority of the popular IR benchmarks today focus exclusively on downstream task accuracy and thus conceal the costs incurred by systems that trade away efficiency for quality. Latency, hardware cost, and other efficiency considerations are paramount to the deployment of IR systems in user-facing settings. We propose that IR benchmarks structure their evaluation methodology to include not only metrics of accuracy, but also efficiency considerations such as a query latency and the corresponding cost budget for a reproducible hardware setting. For the popular IR benchmarks MS MARCO and XOR-TyDi, we show how the best choice of IR system varies according to how these efficiency considerations are chosen and weighed. We hope that future benchmarks will adopt these guidelines toward more holistic IR evaluation.

Reformulating the history matching problem from a least-square mathematical optimization problem into a Markov Decision Process introduces a method in which reinforcement learning can be utilized to solve the problem. This method provides a mechanism where an artificial deep neural network agent can interact with the reservoir simulator and find multiple different solutions to the problem. Such formulation allows for solving the problem in parallel by launching multiple concurrent environments enabling the agent to learn simultaneously from all the environments at once, achieving significant speed up.

Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be able to perform new tasks based on a few demonstrations or natural language instructions. While these capabilities have led to widespread adoption, most LLMs are developed by resource-rich organizations and are frequently kept from the public. As a step towards democratizing this powerful technology, we present BLOOM, a 176B-parameter open-access language model designed and built thanks to a collaboration of hundreds of researchers. BLOOM is a decoder-only Transformer language model that was trained on the ROOTS corpus, a dataset comprising hundreds of sources in 46 natural and 13 programming languages (59 in total). We find that BLOOM achieves competitive performance on a wide variety of benchmarks, with stronger results after undergoing multitask prompted finetuning. To facilitate future research and applications using LLMs, we publicly release our models and code under the Responsible AI License.